Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aede95caef87e83a74d53fd876eb3840d810d8eb822e009d9ae0fd9c1bf7d7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 312 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 70c | 3,176$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.76 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 22c | 3,051$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 15c | 2,606$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.05 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 27c | 2,480$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 2,130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 32c | 2,090$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed No | 70c | 2,067$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed No | 68c | 2,029$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 43c | 1,923$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 31c | 1,922$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed Yes | 10c | 1,808$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 18c | 1,731$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 37c | 1,615$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 68c | 1,516$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 33c | 1,460$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,416$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 1,400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…e7cabacked Yes | 26c | 1,346$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 75c | 1,277$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.96 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8153backed No | 74c | 1,119$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 70c | 1,009$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked No | 75c | 986$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes | 26c | 954$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 31c | 941$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 73c | 920$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 26c | 867$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 29c | 865$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 67c | 863$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.79 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked Yes | 30c | 860$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 33c | 858$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 75c | 856$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 72c | 838$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 17c | 811.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 74c | 792$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed No | 67c | 789$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 31c | 783$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 769.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed No | 75c | 739$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed No | 74c | 730$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 25c | 722$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 24c | 712$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 69c | 708$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 25c | 705$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed No | 74c | 662$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes | 31c | 640$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 33c | 638$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 69c | 635$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed No | 75c | 611$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 24c | 611$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 30c | 607$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 24c | 604$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 599$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…7699backed No | 76c | 591$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 31c | 582$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 9c | 580.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked Yes | 33c | 577$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed No | 68c | 575$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed Yes | 25c | 569$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 74c | 567.14$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked No | 71c | 559$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 31c | 556$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…8079backed Yes | 39c | 554.43$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 30c | 553$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c824backed No | 67c | 548$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 33c | 532$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 70c | 531$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 28c | 528$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 70c | 525$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 10c | 519$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 69c | 495$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 24c | 494$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 68c | 491$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…0ec6backed No | 70c | 477$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 30c | 467$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 9c | 459$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 25c | 440$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 75c | 438$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed No | 67c | 434$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 30c | 434$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 21c | 419.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes | 33c | 412$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 11c | 410$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 408.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 33c | 406$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 71c | 395$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 34c | 391$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…3dfcbacked Yes | 24c | 387$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…87bcbacked Yes | 10c | 385.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 75c | 374$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed Yes | 33c | 369$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed Yes | 24c | 368$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 15c | 358$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes | 25c | 358$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 33c | 352$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 349.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…6e2bbacked Yes | 23c | 347.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 7c | 338$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 8c | 336$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 333.64$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.