Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc459b42b57af0f28a1fc7015b85b463221871b5ca802bd4aeaf82df15206086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 12c | 5,340$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 1,841$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.46 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 3c | 1,533$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed Yes | 6c | 1,471$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 1,230$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 785.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 605.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 16c | 589.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 4c | 345$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 4c | 278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 14c | 261$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 260$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 5c | 248$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeff…4309backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…4060backed Yes | 19c | 121.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…b2b6backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.