Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3cfa4534ecde1a09713e149928b618ccd9fc5576be38089f660c082e018e0f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x025e…a248backed Yes | 4c | 4,735$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 13c | 3,509$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.31 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed Yes | 2c | 3,179$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,361$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 4c | 2,293$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…2841backed Yes | 1c | 1,879$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 15c | 1,864$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,760$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…80f6backed Yes | 13c | 1,143$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…f1a6backed Yes | 2c | 816$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 3c | 515.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 502.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 6c | 400.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 391.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 8c | 281.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 12c | 242.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…4775backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 17c | 115.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…58e4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.