TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$540,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,410 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed No7c11,886$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.63258%2 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No4c11,117$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c8,962$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.32983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed No3c7,469$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.042611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b4…7493backed No2c7,338$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No3c5,880$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.96150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No9c5,454$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2629926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7979…202fbacked No3c5,055$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffe…538ebacked No3c4,636$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0880%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No7c3,635$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.675324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked No3c3,586$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked No3c3,384$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No13c3,373$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.352920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1249…10cdbacked No2c2,861$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No6c2,764$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.322781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed No2c2,713$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.83263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c2,555$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.032013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No13c2,468$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.98319.7%3 W · 28 L-7.5wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-84.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No3c2,431$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.92390%0 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No6c2,262$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.36496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked No7c2,210$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No11c2,073$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1915641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c2,067$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.33618.2%5 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No19c2,058$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.781414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No14c2,007$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.93420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes79c2,000$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.991457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No4c1,924$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.471231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed No2c1,800$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No12c1,777$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.813125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…0730backed No3c1,715$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.89633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbfc…e387backed No2c1,707$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7d…ac98backed No3c1,700$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No5c1,691$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.242828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No4c1,682$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed No3c1,672$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No4c1,658$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.872119%4 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c1,638$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.422042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked No4c1,606$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.722119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5d…31b9backed No8c1,590$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.571643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5acd…c079backed No9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No4c1,468$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.622321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No4c1,466$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.362119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No4c1,403$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.413517.1%6 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked No33c1,293$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.69837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No9c1,240$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.63923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e98…a8e6backed No21c1,212$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes67c1,208$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.641346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No8c1,144$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.815135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaece…87f3backed No9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No4c1,081$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.48537.5%4 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No4c1,060$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.174233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No34c1,046$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.642748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48c3…69adbacked No4c1,013$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85be…5ec1backed No16c1,000$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.62922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064f…ff5abacked No13c1,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc88a…7e26backed No1c998.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes66c988$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No10c972$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.745444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No14c896.19$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5613130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes73c869.03$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f3…e273backed No14c857.14$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6066…c86ebacked No2c816.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes73c812$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.247136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No2c799.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.747121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01cb…7f92backed No4c780$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No2c777.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff5…4166backed No4c769.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…ab94backed Yes67c765$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No5c750$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.697431.1%23 W · 51 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96e7…1f1fbacked No4c750$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed No3c725.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.531435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8186…c801backed No13c724.34$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked No3c723.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.151435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked No7c714.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c708.44$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0c…6279backed No33c680$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No3c667.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.441643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes76c657.77$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.774544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No11c650$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked No3c645.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed No33c643$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.191030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes78c639.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.991968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes71c639.25$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed No24c637.7$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.07128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-79.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No6c619.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.175119.6%10 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x635c…c2abbacked No3c610$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81dd…90f6backed No3c600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No3c594.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.883138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No19c564.01$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4917041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked No33c563$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes79c562.64$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6415739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0294…24edbacked No4c560$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes67c556$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed No33c542$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+85.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287c…0b0cbacked No4c533.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No33c529$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.572055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4578…72ecbacked No3c525.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b53…894fbacked No4c523.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.