Movies · resolved market
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90943e0279054a865ee966f348d90c28bd55338ff4d2e8013c86fad695380f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,389 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01a4…8924backed Yes | 1c | 84,124$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 27,390$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.08 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 19,374$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 2c | 19,365$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 18,682$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 15,947$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 10,950$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…90f6backed Yes | 1c | 8,837$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 8,091$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…3211backed Yes | 1c | 5,944$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…4617backed Yes | 1c | 4,811$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,722$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 1c | 4,687$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 1c | 4,526$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…b96abacked Yes | 4c | 3,848$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…69e3backed Yes | 0c | 3,548$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…0b0cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,472$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…3513backed Yes | 1c | 3,123$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,046$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 2c | 3,019$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,949$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…d249backed Yes | 1c | 2,731$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,031$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…8edbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,983$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…bc49backed Yes | 1c | 1,854$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…f0ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,797$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,789$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,764$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 1c | 1,711$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,668$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…9fdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,639$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…6194backed Yes | 1c | 1,593$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,534$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…ac2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,346$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 2c | 1,332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,318$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,297$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a98…7c69backed Yes | 2c | 1,297$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 76c | 1,190$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…d778backed Yes | 1c | 1,091$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…f5ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…078abacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a65…8d8fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…00e2backed Yes | 1c | 997.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…30dabacked Yes | 1c | 976.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 970.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 1c | 958.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 2c | 859.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 2c | 810.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 804.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…1ca9backed Yes | 2c | 798.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 3c | 666.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…c947backed Yes | 2c | 646.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 616.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…b58ebacked Yes | 2c | 553.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 3c | 509.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 3c | 473.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 2c | 440.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Eva Victor win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jennifer Lawrence win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will June Squibb win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sydney Sweeney win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Tessa Thompson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.