Movies · resolved market
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32de12e82c212437e0c62e8a2d561081553c09fe7c3780a308eb23507a60978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,877 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01a4…8924backed Yes | 1c | 81,677$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 27,821$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.11 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 23,830$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 20,901$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 16,248$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 13,701$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…3cdbbacked Yes | 1c | 11,005$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e56…414cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 1c | 5,808$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…74fdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,798$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…d727backed Yes | 1c | 4,926$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d5…7346backed Yes | 1c | 4,579$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…992cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,549$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…1b72backed Yes | 3c | 4,418$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…3cbfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…7349backed Yes | 1c | 3,940$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 2,951$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,823$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…726dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,811$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 5c | 2,803$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 2c | 2,800$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 2,702$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…bfedbacked Yes | 1c | 2,640$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…d4cabacked Yes | 2c | 2,562$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +301.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…9b90backed Yes | 1c | 2,558$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…8d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,410$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +167%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…a1c6backed Yes | 0c | 2,274$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…b45ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,244$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,233$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,171$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 5c | 2,121$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…3513backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…0133backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…169bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,913$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…870ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,805$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,730$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 9c | 1,684$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.73 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,673$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a50…6544backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,554$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…4df9backed Yes | 1c | 1,552$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…a743backed Yes | 5c | 1,549$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…1d5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 1c | 1,234$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…03a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,188$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd7…d2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,136$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 4c | 1,060$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…f6f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,028$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 982.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 1c | 966.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes | 3c | 939.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 1c | 906.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…5255backed Yes | 2c | 836.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 6c | 780$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…f5ffbacked Yes | 2c | 773.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 3c | 737.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…3a78backed Yes | 5c | 720.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 2c | 678$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…269bbacked Yes | 4c | 544.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 501.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ff2ebacked Yes | 5c | 449.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…44fabacked Yes | 5c | 422.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 4c | 411.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 7c | 341$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 7c | 291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 283$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 15c | 247.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…c4edbacked Yes | 7c | 201$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 7c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…65d8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 35c | 78.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Eva Victor win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jennifer Lawrence win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will June Squibb win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sydney Sweeney win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Tessa Thompson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.