TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bb8…69edbacked No2c3,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+101.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No11c2,180$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.81729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No22c1,362$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.642944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes31c1,194$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.54918.4%9 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No69c1,180$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.21770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed No69c948$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.122828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed No69c943$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No72c941$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.522846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes31c910$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.93036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes30c896$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.21747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No68c854$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.9424634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes28c822$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.842147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes31c789$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.412236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed No72c787$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.642045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No21c760$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.65311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked Yes28c675$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4861866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No69c653$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.571921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed Yes29c648$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.081233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No72c635$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.23240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes28c604$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.881643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes31c604$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.762268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+49.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes31c601$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.691513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-68.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No69c595$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.553141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No69c589$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.413740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes31c588$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.725345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes32c585$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.83221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes28c585$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.21353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes31c583$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.271060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+47.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No70c580$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.482839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…f7eabacked No70c565$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed Yes31c550$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+90.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed No71c535$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.851546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No70c531$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.172540%10 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes31c527$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.633336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d26…c9f4backed No72c518$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.961526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No79c499.99$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1213130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No72c477$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.443351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x163a…70a2backed Yes28c473$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.56944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes31c465$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.852733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes31c412$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.281735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1c…7406backed Yes31c411$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.59425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes31c404$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.762466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No70c400$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0126641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No69c395$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.552055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No69c391$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.794645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed No69c372$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+85.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No69c369$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.613946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes31c358$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.022030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No71c349$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.5613040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes31c349$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.812352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes31c335$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.152944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No69c335$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.152138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes28c332$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.041250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No69c331$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.392934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed No70c331$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.71546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed No69c325$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.252142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8e…9be8backed No70c316$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked No69c316$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.042040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked No69c316$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.042850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No69c303$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed Yes31c289$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.411346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No45c284.2$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.785324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked No69c272$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.683056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+87.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes31c268$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.923327.3%9 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No69c252$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.881758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+60.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes31c230$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.72254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes29c220$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.22450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb477…8f5abacked No37c210$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes28c207$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.043951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2e…fe02backed No69c203$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.071428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes31c203$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-48.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…b92cbacked No37c188$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed Yes31c183$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.272536%9 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf99…b970backed No37c175$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes31c174$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.06955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes31c166$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.543438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66ac…7070backed No37c165$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed Yes31c163$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.471040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9220…d348backed Yes26c145.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+94.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes28c143$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.964348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes35c141$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.192634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c139.91$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0103…e972backed No39c135$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa433…1064backed No37c134$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No69c132$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.082744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No69c124$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.563036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x686e…92d9backed No37c117$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed Yes31c115$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.351353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c113$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.123130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed Yes31c113$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.971758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes31c105$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.452356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes31c97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.932965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed No69c92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.481323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-65.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ec3…b35abacked No37c89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x193e…6572backed Yes63c86$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…007abacked Yes63c83$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.