AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9de37e1dce3fb1283024b0cb691a9e7c15ffb9f3c42bfa703b14b2c3ad62bd05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 28c | 1,846$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 71c | 1,559$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed Yes | 72c | 1,436$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed No | 29c | 1,422$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 72c | 1,309$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 27c | 1,128$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 29c | 1,102$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 29c | 1,097$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 29c | 1,072$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,059$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d86…d0a2backed Yes | 71c | 1,029$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes | 71c | 967$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 28c | 940$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 29c | 872$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.88 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 71c | 863$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4ca3backed No | 29c | 858$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed No | 27c | 832$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed No | 29c | 811$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed No | 27c | 744$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 71c | 734$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 71c | 717$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed No | 29c | 668$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 71c | 651$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed Yes | 73c | 645$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed No | 27c | 640$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 27c | 601$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 71c | 573$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed Yes | 73c | 541$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 73c | 534$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 43cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…8bf6backed Yes | 71c | 516$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked No | 27c | 512$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 71c | 506$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…3dfcbacked No | 29c | 499$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 71c | 494$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 29c | 492$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes | 71c | 462$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Yes | 71c | 455$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes | 74c | 453$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 74c | 451$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 29c | 446$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c824backed Yes | 71c | 422$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…b7d3backed No | 29c | 411$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 4c | 392.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 29c | 385$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 13c | 383.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 72c | 381$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 71c | 372$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked Yes | 73c | 353$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 344.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 29c | 344$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 71c | 336$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed Yes | 71c | 329$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 71c | 314$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 71c | 306$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 18c | 302.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed Yes | 71c | 291$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed Yes | 73c | 287$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 71c | 283$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed No | 29c | 264$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked No | 27c | 258$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed Yes | 73c | 258$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked No | 29c | 258$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed Yes | 73c | 254$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 26c | 251$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 71c | 232$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked No | 29c | 232$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 72c | 230$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 71c | 223$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 27c | 222$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 71c | 209$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…2798backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e56…0833backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 28c | 196$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 71c | 195$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 192.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 29c | 190$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 29c | 187$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 28c | 185$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 71c | 175$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 71c | 166$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 29c | 164$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed No | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked No | 29c | 154$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 29c | 151$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 29c | 149$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed Yes | 72c | 142$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 28c | 138$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 29c | 135$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 72c | 135$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked No | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 29c | 131$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked Yes | 72c | 127$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 29c | 126$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 29c | 119$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 28c | 116$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 72c | 113$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.