World Politics · resolved market
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6334e637566b43ecb3febfef98e52efbddfb32382e39e5b7d790994b7c84f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 22c | 1,513$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 22c | 963$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 80c | 764$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 78c | 599$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 4c | 532.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 78c | 525$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 78c | 493$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 21c | 464$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 80c | 457$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 78c | 424$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 20c | 414$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 78c | 381$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 22c | 353$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +125%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…cfc1backed Yes | 20c | 352$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 78c | 305$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked No | 78c | 303$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed Yes | 7c | 282.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 20c | 275$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 78c | 270$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 79c | 269$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 21c | 263.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 22c | 262$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 78c | 262$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 20c | 259.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 79c | 253$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 78c | 231$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 72c | 222.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 41cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 22c | 210$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Yes | 21c | 200.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 21c | 196$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 22c | 181$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 172.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed No | 80c | 147$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 137.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 20c | 134$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed No | 80c | 112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 32c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 92.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 85.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 31c | 39.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.