World Politics · resolved market
Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4537b6e834becaba405f32db0e4cb1714a889e77d5b1a0824e4d280dd1225b53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 13c | 1,272$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 14c | 852$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 13c | 758$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 13c | 752$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 14c | 684$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 13c | 643$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 13c | 633$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 14c | 604$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 13c | 551$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 13c | 502$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 13c | 385$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 380.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed Yes | 13c | 373$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 13c | 316$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 13c | 286$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 13c | 256$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 12c | 248$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 13c | 241$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 13c | 238$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 13c | 224.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes | 13c | 204$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 199.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 12c | 182$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 13c | 181$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed Yes | 9c | 166.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 13c | 127$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.