World Politics · resolved market
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12d5ba7dccb664dc9d73068c71a446ae11608b5c629a9faee9f3999a8e70f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,126$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 22c | 1,052$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 78c | 902$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed No | 77c | 835$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed No | 77c | 758$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 22c | 697$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 23c | 604$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 78c | 543$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 18c | 523$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 77c | 502$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 23c | 460$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed Yes | 23c | 369$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 77c | 360$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 23c | 315$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No | 77c | 315$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 77c | 287$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 77c | 269$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 254.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…6a99backed Yes | 5c | 220.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 77c | 186$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 78c | 154$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 150.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 16c | 149.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 23c | 146$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…13a3backed Yes | 26c | 121.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 23c | 112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…70e5backed Yes | 22c | 108.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 92.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed No | 77c | 89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +244%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 23c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0458backed Yes | 24c | 82.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 73.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 27c | 73.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 20c | 72.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 26c | 66.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 79c | 62.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…f17bbacked Yes | 22c | 44.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 74c | 32.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 28.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round?Yes won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.