World Politics · resolved market
Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab45a9f0778f7bf8bd9dd89317b6d025358568ec7033f879ee1f7c9fe1315a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 69c | 3,488$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.85 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,983$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.33 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 34c | 2,150$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,117$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.33 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 1,243$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.08 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 27c | 974.48$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 41c | 572.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.56 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 12c | 511.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.56 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 430$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.27 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 74c | 318.42$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 68c | 318.42$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 297$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.34 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 42c | 284.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.91 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 278.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…7878backed Yes | 75c | 263.62$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…e95cbacked No | 33c | 211.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b0…7795backed No | 29c | 209.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 70c | 205.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…8a68backed No | 32c | 185$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 140.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 137.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 74c | 133.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…d5bbbacked Yes | 76c | 132.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 55c | 127.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…b851backed Yes | 27c | 119.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 109.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…c7c4backed Yes | 78c | 102.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 75c | 100.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 92.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 92.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 22c | 89.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 82.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…c84dbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…009abacked Yes | 68c | 73.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 76c | 56.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc854…237cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…5edebacked No | 76c | 50.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 43c | 47.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…3668backed Yes | 69c | 44.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…35a7backed Yes | 36c | 41.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked Yes | 68c | 40.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…367abacked No | 32c | 37.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…032abacked Yes | 41c | 36.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…4441backed Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed Yes | 39c | 27.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…3acdbacked Yes | 75c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win more than 26% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.