Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe99eefe22f292a32c35f25b44f24ded24d0dcf2b618f8e614f103b2b40716d53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,533 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 50c | 2,220$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.61 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,780$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 65c | 1,245$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 1,207$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.81 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,144$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,140$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 44c | 1,138$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 64c | 1,101$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 69c | 1,050$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.45 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 70c | 986$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 33c | 982$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 45c | 970.28$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.93 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 33c | 940$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 929.14$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.84 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 11c | 919.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 68c | 904$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 67c | 859$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed No | 64c | 837$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 29c | 828.84$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.16 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 36c | 806$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd8…4790backed Yes | 36c | 764.8$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 67c | 689$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 71c | 662$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed No | 70c | 645$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 32c | 641$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 66c | 633.03$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 29c | 630$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.22 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 30c | 620$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 30c | 606$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 34c | 603$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 69c | 585$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 29c | 580.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 71c | 577$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 69c | 572$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 29c | 554$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…e7cabacked No | 71c | 547$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 36c | 522$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 20c | 506$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 66c | 494$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 69c | 483$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 32c | 469$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 10c | 463.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked No | 66c | 460$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 31c | 459$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 31c | 430$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 32cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 70c | 427$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 406.21$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 32c | 388$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed No | 68c | 388$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 29c | 386$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed No | 67c | 381$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 34c | 366$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 29c | 365$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed No | 67c | 356$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 37c | 353$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 37c | 350$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 68c | 345.84$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 11c | 334.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.79 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 32c | 333.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 66c | 330$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 33c | 329$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 33c | 322$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 30c | 321$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 13c | 315.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 66c | 308$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 32c | 295$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 36c | 294$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 64c | 294$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 34c | 286$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 64c | 280$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 34c | 273$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 67c | 271$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 70c | 267$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 264.12$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 31c | 251$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 16c | 250.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.64 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 67c | 246$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 33c | 246$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 64c | 229$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked Yes | 80c | 228.23$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…8ec9backed No | 66c | 222$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 65c | 221$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 31c | 213$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 30c | 206$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…fed2backed Yes | 16c | 198.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 73c | 198.34$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 34c | 187$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8588backed Yes | 33c | 174$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 30c | 174$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…c790backed Yes | 33c | 171$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…175fbacked Yes | 31c | 168$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 30c | 166$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 9c | 165.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 67c | 165$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 69c | 163.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…1d24backed Yes | 33c | 162$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1c…769ebacked Yes | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?this page
- Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
- Will Wesley Hunt come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.