Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Wesley Hunt come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8726ed3f40f302d8df1a58a45fc416fc9961d4dfad660dc2fe9bab2909ea3a93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,118 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b5a…33eebacked Yes | 19c | 13,020$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3126…4ff7backed Yes | 19c | 13,020$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…3bb4backed Yes | 19c | 12,780$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…a961backed Yes | 19c | 7,230$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…f660backed Yes | 19c | 6,740$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…811fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,761$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…90c2backed Yes | 19c | 4,030$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…9817backed Yes | 19c | 3,810$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…43dabacked Yes | 19c | 2,570$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…2d7dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,540$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4feb…446bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,510$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…b586backed Yes | 19c | 2,440$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 2,343$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.3 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…175bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,870$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…f419backed Yes | 19c | 1,700$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 1c | 1,664$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,647$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,430$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…0979backed Yes | 19c | 1,200$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…37fbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,060$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 1c | 953.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 5c | 900$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…c666backed Yes | 19c | 629.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…fed2backed Yes | 6c | 577.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 29c | 486$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 436.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…d461backed Yes | 19c | 340.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 311.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 13c | 295.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 4c | 279$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…8aaabacked Yes | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…bd68backed Yes | 19c | 186.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…4c56backed Yes | 8c | 151.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 62c | 118.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 111.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 17c | 98.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 92.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 16c | 75.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 58c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 45c | 68.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 22c | 63.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 59c | 26.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wesley Hunt come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?this page
- Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No won
- Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.