World Politics · resolved market
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff1f73078de189b29722856cb9307bb9460dd1869522ec287949fc54238d78b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 80c | 4,604$3,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.37 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…0779backed Yes | 23c | 2,984$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…1791backed Yes | 19c | 1,748$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…5841backed Yes | 10c | 1,493$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,484$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.83 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 12c | 1,286$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…15bbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,067$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 19c | 1,045$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…22babacked Yes | 21c | 949.41$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 78c | 784.91$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.54 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 66c | 595$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…bbf2backed Yes | 20c | 585.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 15c | 551.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 34c | 546$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 22c | 524$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14e…3a06backed Yes | 16c | 513.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…c380backed Yes | 13c | 450.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…d88ebacked Yes | 11c | 448.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 10c | 436.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 20c | 410.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 405.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f4…9eeabacked Yes | 39c | 405.12$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 22c | 357.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…1a3cbacked Yes | 17c | 352.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 62c | 315$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…879ebacked Yes | 17c | 302.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 12c | 227$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 9c | 212.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 207.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 34c | 205$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…9784backed Yes | 17c | 204.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 12c | 202$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 66c | 197$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 190.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed Yes | 17c | 188$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 66c | 184$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 21c | 159.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 38c | 158$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 12c | 153$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked No | 66c | 148$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 37c | 145$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 34c | 127$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…616abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 63c | 98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572d…292abacked Yes | 17c | 94.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 34c | 93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…13e6backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 15c | 82.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 81.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 15c | 76.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 62c | 75.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 60c | 68.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 42.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 34.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?this page
- Will Ana-Maria Ciceală finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.