World Politics · resolved market
Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767ba2954a01ed922ee0a972ba378305e1273db23eb8131f0a6dfa6686ef4b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 26c | 15,544$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,577.55 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd35f…0d58backed No | 41c | 9,105$3,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,761.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 54c | 4,028$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.08 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…1dc6backed No | 26c | 2,143$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 23c | 1,795$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked Yes | 52c | 1,525$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.65 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88f7…e7adbacked No | 2c | 1,497$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,069$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.29 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 6c | 736.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 37c | 655.64$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.57 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes | 6c | 653.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.13 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 78c | 493.16$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 15c | 387.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.5 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 65c | 319.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…7d1dbacked Yes | 9c | 281.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +182.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…110cbacked Yes | 17c | 267.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 63c | 262.26$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 9c | 261$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked No | 78c | 243$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 9c | 194$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 41cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 10c | 191$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 10c | 185$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +259.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 22c | 175$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 62c | 167.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 155.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…616abacked Yes | 15c | 154.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…a265backed Yes | 23c | 150.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 11c | 145$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 10c | 139.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 139.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed Yes | 22c | 137$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 17c | 136$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9e…496dbacked Yes | 20c | 132$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 9c | 128$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…de1dbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…3984backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…c452backed Yes | 20c | 122$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…9da1backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…1ad0backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…f8dcbacked Yes | 20c | 118$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc4…33cbbacked Yes | 20c | 117$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…6ddabacked Yes | 20c | 117$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…7603backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…e745backed No | 80c | 113$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efa…6e2ebacked Yes | 20c | 113$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…29d6backed No | 80c | 111$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…bbf2backed Yes | 36c | 110.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…f705backed No | 80c | 109$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…15d9backed No | 80c | 109$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…4307backed No | 80c | 108$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…3de8backed No | 80c | 108$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a63…bc0cbacked No | 80c | 107$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…e1debacked No | 80c | 105$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…e46ebacked No | 80c | 103$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 58c | 101.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 52c | 97.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +274.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 18c | 81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +203.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed Yes | 18c | 78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 68.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…576fbacked Yes | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc066…fc03backed No | 80c | 21.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 70c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…89debacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…a01cbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?this page
- Will Ana-Maria Ciceală finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.