TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90c4…7d1d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.92
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$27.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.84
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+134.6%+$17.21
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.78
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$76.96
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.58
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,002.1
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$83.12
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+130.7%+$347.03
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+174.3%+$622.21
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+350.8%+$245.55
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+316.7%+$47.5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$45
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+475.5%+$475.51
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.37
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.74
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.28
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Kenya win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Qatar win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+233.3%+$53.67
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Kazakhstan vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+131.9%+$26.38
All 15 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.64
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$69
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.68
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.68
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+107.4%+$18.97
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.18
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$24.25
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
PSV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$33
All 12 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+97.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+182.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+126.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+185.7%+$66.86
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.6
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$83.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.