TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$299,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$505,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes18c4,396$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.2842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c3,300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.381976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes16c1,489$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.2536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes7c1,463$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8515023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes7c1,100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes27c1,050$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.2445843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c4…7d1dbacked No36c979.21$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.211850%9 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No35c896.57$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.7527643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed Yes77c852$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No17c790.59$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.026240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c675.45$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No24c644.28$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.2947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No17c644.11$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.2838247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes65c632.36$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.7715331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes17c537$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.293545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No60c521.24$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.64124.4%10 W · 31 L-16.0wins-0.39per pick63cpaid-63.2%equal weight23-0.24 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes54c513.03$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.764151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6fa0…488bbacked No40c500.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.751250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No22c499.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.997851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes71c462.57$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.074146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No30c413.91$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.1517646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b92…45eebacked No48c412.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No27c400.26$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.2113342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a0…68fdbacked Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No35c399.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9921259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes65c397.47$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes78c386.96$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.199920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No45c328$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+46.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No42c313.53$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No22c306.79$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.83534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No24c305.07$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.3115436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked No67c304$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.322254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes33c297$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-72.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes17c296$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.321833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes48c286$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.281656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes55c273$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.154542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No28c267.86$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.867335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed No72c265$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes73c264.11$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.125313.2%7 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No48c260.76$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.787850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No29c259.47$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.478144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes14c235$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No39c234.81$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9315743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b4…5dbebacked No44c229.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.052744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a5…99e3backed No28c226.38$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.591866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes68c210$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.120247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes9c204.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69b7…767bbacked Yes29c202.27$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.053348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16010045%45 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes38c199.98$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.497341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83dc…b08ebacked Yes33c197.54$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.351668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked No64c191.62$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.988145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes28c191$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.482045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes17c188$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.961145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes17c187$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.791947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No41c181.14$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No52c176$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.482737%10 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No20c171.46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed No26c170$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.82245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed No68c166.95$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a25…d5e8backed Yes25c158.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes17c156$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+126.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked No37c155$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No38c153$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8611851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes14c152.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7428827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes60c148.94$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5410165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes18c146.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8133741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Yes76c138.16$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes17c128$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+50.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ca9…4ebbbacked No69c125$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+48.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed No67c121$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.931450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae9…2923backed No48c118$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed Yes52c118$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed Yes33c117$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.612040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked Yes70c116.76$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.872740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes17c114$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1089…64babacked No32c113.28$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.03785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes12c111.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed Yes63c110$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.32347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked No52c110$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes16c105.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7610153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb7…5985backed No29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+94.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No40c98.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.938132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes55c95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.252236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c92.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e3…300ebacked No71c91.77$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes63c87.61$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edd…994cbacked Yes60c84.78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+345.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No23c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6219534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes33c79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.07650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed Yes77c77.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked No44c77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.031464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x460d…6232backed No67c76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed Yes28c74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.