Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by Jan 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b5be1129bac667fc597093fe7ba2ec1260dc5f6e52b51b5a3dafe2641b7b9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c12…d725backed No | 59c | 1,033$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 41c | 859$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 59c | 820$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 59c | 811$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 15c | 774$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 701.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 11c | 654$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes | 41c | 503$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 41c | 455$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 15c | 361$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 41c | 348$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 13c | 315.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 41c | 291$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 41c | 287$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 15c | 279$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 264.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 43c | 255$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 57c | 255$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…4677backed Yes | 31c | 251.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 59c | 185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 178.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 176.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 41c | 171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 21c | 169.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 43c | 155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…baf6backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 59c | 152$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 41c | 147$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 41c | 134$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 131.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked Yes | 41c | 126$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 59c | 107$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 57c | 103$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 57c | 65.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…eb54backed No | 68c | 51.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…84bbbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed No | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.