TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe64c…b9ff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Eric Vaughan advance to the general election for WA-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.86
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.69
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.09
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.04
Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+66.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.19
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+131.6%+$377.06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+201.2%+$60.12
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+56%+$31.5
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+196.2%+$474.24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.99
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$126
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+143.9%+$27.13
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+107.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-52.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Earnings — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+154.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.2
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$41.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+258.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+258.3%+$67.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Ratesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$305.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$146.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.