TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$291,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$288,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 377 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xffdc…0cf1backed No25c10,129$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x193b…cabebacked Yes75c4,087$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d3…212ebacked Yes75c3,159$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21e9…ef05backed Yes75c2,883$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes67c2,242$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.732360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed No26c1,950$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.871861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x523d…cc1dbacked No24c1,847$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.341926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-55.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No26c1,644$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.821952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes64c1,640$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.522564%16 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No22c1,636$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.922846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes63c1,585$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.281838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No31c1,423$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.072850%14 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+117%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes66c1,400$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4761050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No27c1,396$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.974235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93fb…e392backed No34c1,388$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.921127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-51.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No19c1,305$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.951844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes74c1,272$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.492161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.517941.9%75 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes66c1,245$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.983737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked No23c1,244$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.952548%12 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes67c1,241$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.953250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204d…08cbbacked No34c1,219$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.461172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+69.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked No30c1,204$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4582…7699backed No38c1,204$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed Yes68c1,180$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.562944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes59c1,164$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.872142.9%9 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed No32c1,163$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.221346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14d5…1f63backed No19c1,110$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-65%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes63c1,109$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.411770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+45.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed Yes68c1,108$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No30c1,091$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.712634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No30c1,077$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.072828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked No21c1,069$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.492035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No29c1,046$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.342147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No18c1,039$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.022240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed Yes63c1,024$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.261758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes70c1,004$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.653259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No32c988$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.321643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No34c981$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.541435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed Yes73c973$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.233033.3%10 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes73c957$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.712157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes58c949$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.582147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes71c947$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.631861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No21c941$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.783033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed No41c941$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.812152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed No41c939$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.541533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes66c927$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.181136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed No37c922$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.422941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes66c916$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked No38c908$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.282152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes72c904$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.562846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked Yes73c879$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+79.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes70c870$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.443148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed No17c850$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.51442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed No29c849$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.212138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes73c847$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.131250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No27c828$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.772142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No25c812$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.432955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes61c807$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.342653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd70b…a152backed No17c804$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.681338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes79c798$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.62766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes69c792$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.662857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed No20c784$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.81540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No29c768$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.722339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No21c764$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.634334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed Yes78c757$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.541546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No41c756$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.962450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed No41c750$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.761040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes66c747$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.981741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No29c746$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.342030%6 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No22c746$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.122347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No19c740$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.62842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed No22c739$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes71c735$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.152441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked No19c731$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.891457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+67%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes77c724$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.071838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes70c719$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.71735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed No34c716$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.441250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes59c703$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.183246.9%15 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No38c699$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.172630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes80c695$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes71c690$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked No42c689$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.181650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc03…cd5cbacked Yes60c686$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed Yes68c681$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.921546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed No22c677$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.94825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Yes58c676$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.922751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed No19c668$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.232161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No21c664$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.432326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed No18c662$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.161553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes78c655$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.12429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes80c654$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.193435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed No35c652$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-15.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes65c652$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.21752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed No20c651$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.451618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed Yes80c649$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.392055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…ab94backed No19c645$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.55650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+70.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes70c643$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.612250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No29c642$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.182227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No25c639$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.112030%6 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.