NBA · resolved market
Will Karl-Anthony Towns be traded this season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e3fee613e9a7075b5851eefa84dfca4d7d4c627d1b87783f892d284cf03b5c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 74c | 271.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 20c | 217.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 9c | 216$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 208.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 9c | 178.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 168.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed Yes | 11c | 166$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 12c | 151.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed Yes | 13c | 141$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed Yes | 13c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Yes | 12c | 109.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…e682backed Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 96.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…3b59backed Yes | 14c | 75.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…d75bbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87e…5f4dbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 63c | 22.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karl-Anthony Towns be traded this season?this page
- Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?Yes won
- Will CJ McCollum be traded this season?Yes won
- Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?No won
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?No won
- Will Ja Morant be traded this season?No won
- Will James Harden be traded this season?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?Yes won
- Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?Yes won
- Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season?No won
- Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?No won
- Will Mikal Bridges be traded this season?No won
- Will Trae Young be traded this season?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.