Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf51b8669f9a9bbae2767e8868731b257de7035bab89b13a0a4aa516266d6a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 63c | 1,575$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.13 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 47c | 424$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 20c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 206.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 119$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked No | 61c | 117.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 101.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 95.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 93.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 72c | 88.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?this page
- Will Antony Barran advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
- Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
- Will Eric Vaughan advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
- Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?Yes won
- Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?Yes won
- Will Suzzanna V. Tanner advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.