Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef720745be0a15b63c392854dacae4227a9deafe11fdf6afe79bdf45754dd10a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 76c | 1,624$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.58 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 5c | 1,167$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 18c | 624.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 8c | 550.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 13c | 516$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 7c | 438.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3229…c71bbacked No | 13c | 436.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 27c | 423$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 6c | 368.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 346.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 67c | 310.52$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…29a1backed No | 5c | 286$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…a60fbacked No | 9c | 211.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 194.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 194.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 7c | 173.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 162.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 11c | 134.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 8c | 133$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 20c | 123.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…6090backed Yes | 79c | 123.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 20c | 123.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 24c | 123.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 49c | 104.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +70%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 98.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 13c | 77.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 69c | 56.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 55.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 73c | 34.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 72c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…7f5abacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 75c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?this page
- Will Antony Barran advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
- Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
- Will Eric Vaughan advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
- Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?Yes won
- Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
- Will Suzzanna V. Tanner advance to the general election for WA-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.