Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ddce0b363dec3cd83336187125c4b23ba35ddd9ab082356b38f1cb122f3ae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 4c | 2,989$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 4c | 899.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 3c | 654.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 7c | 499.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 79c | 417$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 38c | 410.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 3c | 367$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 3c | 356.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 71c | 354.5$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 7c | 283.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 263.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ef…1c97backed No | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 5c | 225$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 5c | 212.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 8c | 211.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 80c | 206.41$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 182.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 18c | 181$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 7c | 176.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 9c | 164.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 155.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 10c | 138.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 16c | 127.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 99.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 16c | 85.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 16c | 85.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 83.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked No | 30c | 81.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…c186backed No | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 35c | 68.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 17c | 65.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 79c | 64.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…e545backed No | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…dbe1backed Yes | 78c | 13.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?this page
- Will Dalourny Nemorin be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?No won
- Will Michael Blake be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.