Fed Rates · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1c7afb51e4a2df698a4b9a2aa0cef2392b33825159f5c6969bf4e2e3faa1d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,268 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 18c | 6,325$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 6,112$4,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.47 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…c565backed No | 33c | 3,178$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 6c | 2,825$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 13c | 2,087$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…c442backed No | 20c | 1,414$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed Yes | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…eb34backed No | 10c | 1,193$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked No | 4c | 999.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked Yes | 77c | 899.32$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…501ebacked No | 23c | 887.89$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 31c | 728.59$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 34c | 713.02$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 22c | 608.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…5b9fbacked No | 7c | 594.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…4e2fbacked No | 3c | 577.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…7061backed No | 7c | 402.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 43c | 400$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 392.15$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 7c | 378.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…3a9abacked No | 18c | 350.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 59c | 336.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 31c | 321.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked No | 7c | 314.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 42c | 308.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 296.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 75c | 279.58$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 53c | 268$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…d865backed No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 17c | 215.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…e610backed Yes | 63c | 200.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…f7f0backed Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…ea39backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 198.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 79c | 197.57$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 182.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…744dbacked No | 15c | 180.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 34c | 168.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 43c | 151.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 8c | 148.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…2d97backed Yes | 64c | 148.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…e178backed Yes | 60c | 138.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 129.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…b164backed No | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 66c | 118.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…b703backed No | 23c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 15c | 104.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…256ebacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb582…3097backed No | 21c | 95.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 39c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…e87abacked No | 29c | 90.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed No | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…7a6dbacked Yes | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 65c | 80.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed No | 16c | 74.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…d82fbacked Yes | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…e98bbacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…fa9bbacked No | 20c | 55.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 31c | 54.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 64c | 51.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 50.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 47.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0dcabacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…fe63backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 40c | 31.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 49c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3dbfbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea59…ce61backed Yes | 64c | 18.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d6…8718backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…6e6bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.