Earnings · resolved market
Will Warby Parker (WRBY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x260bf48a49c69fbb8d79de5149c5a3dbbf3efa6460c09ea26bc13f81ff9f5f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 38c | 2,041$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.33 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51aa…10dabacked Yes | 44c | 562.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 72c | 532.18$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 63c | 500$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 58c | 500$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 61c | 344$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 311.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 36c | 231.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed Yes | 61c | 225.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 26c | 161$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 35c | 152.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 63c | 152$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 149$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 41c | 108$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 59c | 103.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 42c | 65.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c2ddbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…d71fbacked No | 64c | 46.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…84e8backed No | 63c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed Yes | 35c | 33.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 39c | 30.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 64c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 65c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 65c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.