TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb905…1640backed No70c4,804$3,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.298747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes18c4,337$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,566.94,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes27c2,070$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.1410227.5%28 W · 74 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes19c2,068$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.4930144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes7c2,052$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.5732310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Yes73c1,626$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.324445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…b193backed Yes59c1,162$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.311225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No42c1,042$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.122,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes60c874.65$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.6227534.2%94 W · 181 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No47c859.88$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.183948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c835.6$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes62c797.77$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.3490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd3c0…d212backed No42c699.99$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.85125.5%13 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes20c690.72$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.219230.4%28 W · 64 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x302a…8227backed Yes61c493.81$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.153743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73bd…e63ebacked Yes80c455.9$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes50c426.86$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes69c344.55$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.0417334.7%60 W · 113 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes28c328.97$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.5381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f57…7f33backed Yes49c278.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.231625%4 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No53c268.24$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.415756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x935e…5890backed Yes64c264.4$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes76c263.36$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes57c250$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.612624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes46c226.95$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.641,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe350…6876backed Yes62c219.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe363…6786backed Yes67c215.23$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f8…f8d5backed No45c200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4154529.5%161 W · 384 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.283060%18 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0149…fa64backed Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c199.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa189…0acdbacked Yes65c198$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf30…6a42backed Yes56c179.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.423132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes54c160.88$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7927246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f70…d13abacked Yes8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1159433.4%32 W · 911 L-1.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes65c113.86$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9146626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes62c110.88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7621…c580backed No48c108.87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b6…3740backed Yes60c105$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.15650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…f6bebacked Yes76c102.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c25…87c0backed Yes68c100.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.164146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd29…fd24backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefb9…7828backed Yes53c94.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.095560%33 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No42c93.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.851,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc55f…d26abacked Yes65c92.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.748637.2%32 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bad…08a1backed Yes65c92.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.474148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes46c89.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.731,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No37c85.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.854254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x494d…0804backed Yes78c77.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.953063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6611…2859backed Yes69c72.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.871643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x923e…2ab6backed Yes60c72.86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.36683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No49c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3415749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80d…acd7backed Yes72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes67c64.02$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.444030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4b…ab60backed Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9b…217fbacked Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No39c56.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.722,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes52c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.323748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes56c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes60c54.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a6…e0c2backed No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick35cpaid+60.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc33…58efbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef63…a145backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55944.1%26 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.211323%26 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.698738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x34f3…48e4backed Yes62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.26264.5%40 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes52c38.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1915752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1450…ab3bbacked Yes59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…2f5cbacked Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick60cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd13c…8938backed No51c31.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes36c30.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes52c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.449954.5%54 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No48c27.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3784759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x450c…e161backed Yes58c27.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.631050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aed…8220backed Yes67c26.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.96580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64fa…1661backed Yes74c26.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb1…0339backed Yes68c26.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.471181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick56cpaid+47.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc15c…6549backed Yes64c23.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.522556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes72c21.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.031369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc40…1b66backed Yes64c20.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.313100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd83a…3609backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8171…f5e8backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87a…b968backed Yes52c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes58c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.011747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee6…1961backed Yes61c16.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04fe…19b6backed Yes66c16.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x590c…c346backed Yes67c16.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.