Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a87394ba8a9bc9f0ed53d3da5445b4f38f8bfe8c82d9ce49145f4d6797a7846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 70c | 4,804$3,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,358.29 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 4,337$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,566.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,070$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.14 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 19c | 2,068$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.49 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 7c | 2,052$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.57 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 73c | 1,626$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.32 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 59c | 1,162$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 42c | 1,042$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 60c | 874.65$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.62 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 47c | 859.88$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.18 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 835.6$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 62c | 797.77$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.34 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 42c | 699.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.8 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 20c | 690.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.21 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 61c | 493.81$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…e63ebacked Yes | 80c | 455.9$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 426.86$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 69c | 344.55$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 28c | 328.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.53 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed Yes | 49c | 278.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 53c | 268.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…5890backed Yes | 64c | 264.4$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 76c | 263.36$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 57c | 250$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 46c | 226.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…6876backed Yes | 62c | 219.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Yes | 67c | 215.23$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…0acdbacked Yes | 65c | 198$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 56c | 179.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 54c | 160.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 65c | 113.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 62c | 110.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 48c | 108.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…3740backed Yes | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…f6bebacked Yes | 76c | 102.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 68c | 100.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 53c | 94.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 93.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 65c | 92.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 65c | 92.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 89.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 37c | 85.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 78c | 77.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 69c | 72.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923e…2ab6backed Yes | 60c | 72.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 67c | 64.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 56.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 60c | 54.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…a145backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 52c | 38.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…ab3bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…8938backed No | 51c | 31.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 36c | 30.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 27.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 58c | 27.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…8220backed Yes | 67c | 26.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…1661backed Yes | 74c | 26.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 64c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 72c | 21.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…1b66backed Yes | 64c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…f5e8backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee6…1961backed Yes | 61c | 16.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fe…19b6backed Yes | 66c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590c…c346backed Yes | 67c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.