Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x506e6421d2a401a3afc4f7d497348938b3c80653f5396c1a72ae127af81f56cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 10,566$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 0c | 10,060$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 19c | 7,755$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.92 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 2c | 5,122$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed No | 64c | 2,373$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.58 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 1,603$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 30c | 1,460$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.04 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 19c | 944.68$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.04 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 3c | 934.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 77c | 900$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.08 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 10c | 892.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed No | 75c | 845.17$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 8c | 781.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 16c | 579.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 10c | 499.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 58c | 425.82$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.06 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 20c | 394.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 17c | 388.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 50c | 383.37$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 361$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 8c | 343.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed No | 73c | 252.76$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…8a62backed Yes | 41c | 243.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 52c | 236.06$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 54c | 231.57$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 16c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 48c | 219.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 16c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 116.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 101.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 58c | 97.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…db21backed No | 19c | 96.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +430.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 76c | 78.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 78c | 77.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 48c | 71.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…0e3ebacked No | 60c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 48c | 28.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…5dcbbacked No | 63c | 28.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…f5e8backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.