Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d8276ae546ae4c0cf97ddd88af8542cd105098af13503002a13f81f092400c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 0c | 11,508$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 5,097$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 0c | 5,003$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 2,030$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.58 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 28c | 857.45$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 75c | 725.53$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.92 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 681.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed Yes | 4c | 472.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 30c | 421.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…e3e1backed No | 75c | 360$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked Yes | 10c | 265.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 248.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 68c | 196.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 124.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 33c | 119.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 30c | 104.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 10c | 101.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 89.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d9…058cbacked Yes | 27c | 66.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 29c | 63.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 68c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 77c | 52.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…a145backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 71c | 42.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…1661backed Yes | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 40.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 40.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 74c | 37.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 33c | 33.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 66c | 32.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 74c | 22.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.