Earnings · resolved market
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe74ad2f7df5acbadaa1c7c3b9db4698381271ed1f627db9c323668e3cacd002f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 39c | 1,574$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.36 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 59c | 1,162$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.99 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 55c | 691.29$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 599.99$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 37c | 394.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.86 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 43c | 381$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 62c | 265.05$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 13c | 182.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 63c | 172.06$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 37c | 162.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 125.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 121.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…a8bbbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 60c | 98.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 46c | 87.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 66c | 85.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed Yes | 61c | 82.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 54c | 80.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 57c | 78.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 42c | 77.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 33c | 76.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…3fbebacked No | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 65c | 63.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…cd31backed Yes | 63c | 62.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Yes | 63c | 62.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 40c | 57.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed No | 37c | 50.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…5d16backed Yes | 63c | 46.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 63c | 45.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 39c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…0607backed Yes | 63c | 37.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Yes | 76c | 37.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…62a5backed Yes | 62c | 34.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…5ec6backed Yes | 63c | 33.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Yes | 61c | 32.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 63c | 31.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…f5e5backed Yes | 63c | 31.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…b813backed No | 36c | 31.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…53e3backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…1aecbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes | 68c | 29.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 63c | 29.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 37c | 28.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…7409backed Yes | 63c | 26.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7479backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…531dbacked Yes | 62c | 22.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…a1b9backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…66d8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…e0e4backed Yes | 63c | 19.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 57c | 19.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…500dbacked Yes | 61c | 18.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf99…ce6abacked Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.