Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21c5db990b49634e0b5598596bacbfaa7890607ae2846e940b4a21b76e1db1c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 2c | 8,787$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 4c | 1,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 70c | 871.37$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.84 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 14c | 723.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 17c | 659.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 8c | 606.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 9c | 584.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 553.86$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.71 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…7d80backed Yes | 67c | 471.83$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 42c | 467.24$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…19b2backed Yes | 60c | 399.6$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 35c | 354.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…6dfebacked Yes | 73c | 342.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed No | 12c | 297.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 25c | 230$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 68c | 178.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…30dabacked No | 18c | 175.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 74c | 170$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 79c | 150.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 21c | 131.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 131.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 79c | 122.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 26c | 117.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 58c | 109$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 107.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b483backed No | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 100.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 38c | 94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked No | 20c | 77.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 79c | 74.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 29c | 62.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 20c | 61.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…188fbacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…7d31backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 61c | 48.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 43c | 36.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 74c | 31.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d9…eb1abacked No | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 60c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.