Earnings · resolved market
Will Icahn Enterprises (IEP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc20b280e0a72dcf4260c7a8f3e12b44516c9996da79129c4790bd37d55ca5364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 36c | 886.64$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.88 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 53c | 739.41$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.79 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 65c | 713.29$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 34c | 654.81$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.62 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 43c | 654.41$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.89 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 54c | 380$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 34c | 349.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed Yes | 60c | 332.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 257.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 244.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 30c | 226.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 182.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 164$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…ea28backed No | 71c | 156.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 60c | 113.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…7926backed No | 64c | 97.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed No | 63c | 85.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 79.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 67c | 74.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 67.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…e0c3backed No | 69c | 64.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 59.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 33c | 58.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 58c | 58.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 26c | 48.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…84e8backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…83f5backed No | 72c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe869…dbfdbacked No | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 67c | 15.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.