TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,261 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x230b…7409backed No13c13,727$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabcc…bcbbbacked No15c3,494$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddbb…32afbacked No17c3,150$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes74c2,755$2,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.934621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1229…df38backed No15c2,755$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes78c2,427$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.483743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…5545backed No15c2,292$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae69…65c9backed Yes68c2,025$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No23c1,637$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4711359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c1,400$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95dc…6b74backed Yes79c1,354$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.923100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No12c1,306$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.081315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9065…f13abacked No15c1,053$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes78c1,026$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.24850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a17…2560backed Yes63c876.35$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes68c873.34$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.5713338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ed1…f8aabacked Yes58c829.32$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No9c778.03$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.94911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No17c702.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.323850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No9c700$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No21c621.8$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.911250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No9c611.54$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.04137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf312…12b4backed No13c605.38$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No9c603.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c539.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No10c521.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2990%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No17c509.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8815148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No10c496.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No15c495.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.831464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa2…692fbacked Yes46c492.19$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No10c468.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.17397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No13c447.15$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No10c428$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec09…1db9backed Yes68c423.52$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa417…07efbacked Yes62c387.36$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d76…b4efbacked Yes51c382.76$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd129…7487backed Yes77c345.71$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058d…42f1backed No15c338.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0f…1132backed Yes70c330.86$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No15c314.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e1…ee14backed Yes42c311.28$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64c…b9ffbacked No17c296.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7e…8fa1backed Yes70c286.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No52c276.57$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.931464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x317d…dc2dbacked Yes79c253.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0676…3b27backed No11c246.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes80c229.91$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No34c229.82$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9830918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d32…b2d7backed Yes75c228$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ea…8adcbacked No11c227.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No25c225.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5810836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a3…24d2backed No9c202.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b53…3598backed Yes51c178.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No20c176.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba4…e348backed Yes51c175$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c168.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0514024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x369a…29d6backed No24c164.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab1…2f01backed Yes59c163.79$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fdc3backed No21c163.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c158.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5117528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No16c151.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8420242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed No20c151.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3170%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes51c145.98$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.485932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a16…518bbacked Yes77c133.16$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.922080%16 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+44.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed No18c132.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.64944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe074…629bbacked Yes58c127.92$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f4…7871backed No17c126$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed No23c120.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e4…f0f3backed Yes68c118.75$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ba…26afbacked Yes80c117.49$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No10c115$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No58c113$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.122161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes61c110$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.41428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No33c106.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7329913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No22c105.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5df4…7a52backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb94f…9546backed Yes77c98.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa8…20bdbacked Yes60c98.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No21c95.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe2…181abacked No13c91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes79c87.2$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f5…b572backed No15c85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes79c81.06$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.023056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d18…0037backed No15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ef…ff3dbacked Yes80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe19…b213backed Yes67c78.48$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No16c76.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04498.2%4 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x650e…f13dbacked No15c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes55c74.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.341872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c62…12c3backed Yes37c70.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79d7…c3a2backed Yes79c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No49c63.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes52c62.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.274240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89f…0df8backed Yes76c62.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7227…3681backed Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f14…a910backed Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a5…36d1backed Yes70c57.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.