Us Politics · resolved market
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0ab061deed89fa2e881f23dd2bf4e01fcf7adc28a82b56442e80b8f33bc550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 4,429$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 36c | 2,109$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.48 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +10.8wins | +0.41per pick | 24cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 63c | 1,605$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.46 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14d6…0851backed No | 16c | 719.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 75c | 400.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 64c | 390.2$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 39c | 316.55$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed Yes | 46c | 304$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 47c | 265.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 236.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed No | 34c | 202.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 43c | 187.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 63c | 185.68$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 48c | 181.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…2574backed No | 64c | 155.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -7.2wins | -0.38per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 47c | 128.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 28c | 90.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 87.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 40c | 86.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 79c | 85.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 51c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 75c | 67.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…b9ffbacked Yes | 59c | 67.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +154.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 66.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 28c | 55.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes | 49c | 51.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 35c | 42.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…2a97backed Yes | 68c | 41.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…a41fbacked Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…718dbacked No | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 61c | 16.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?this page
- Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Rupert Murdoch be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Susie Wiles be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
- Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.