Us Politics · resolved market

Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a2e210d54a18186d6d7f65d37e55806ffe5ef4288a4393282ae3dffe4d52bbc

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,134 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	3,935$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes	49c	553.77$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.42	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+10.8wins	+0.41per pick	24cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes	57c	386.45$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.67	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73ed…2574backed No	31c	322.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-7.2wins	-0.38per pick	59cpaid	-71%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	6c	302$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	49c	200$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.35	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	71c	193.32$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.13	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0676…3b27backed No	50c	149.99$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.35	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	44c	139.2$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.25	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	51c	138.74$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.76	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No	46c	127.4$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.78	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-8.0wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-61%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes	62c	122.04$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.97	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	32c	102.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.31	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	395	22.8%90 W · 305 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed No	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.93	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-6.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No	46c	92.8$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.69	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	20c	73.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes	73c	71$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.41	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b7…a45ebacked Yes	77c	64.94$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.94	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	42c	59.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes	75c	58.68$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.87	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes	48c	52.9$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.7	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes	76c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	68cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No	43c	46.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.9wins	-0.16per pick	53cpaid	-40%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No	46c	46.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	46c	41.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	252	41.7%105 W · 147 L	-17.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No	41c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	74c	38.47$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes	51c	33.62$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.35	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event