TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,127 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4575…9628backed No1c2,020$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.694816.7%8 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes32c1,568$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.912665.4%17 W · 9 L+10.8wins+0.41per pick24cpaid+149.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.843218.8%6 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No25c556.04$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.484634.8%16 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes72c487.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.076858.8%40 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No62c407.62$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.623745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No67c387$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.293327.3%9 W · 24 L-8.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-61%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c288$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No7c284.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c237.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5410135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No67c232$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.444727.7%13 W · 34 L-13.0wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No55c208.58$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3433618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c167$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.911,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No46c164.9$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.063342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef2c…4f0bbacked No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No18c141$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.854916.3%8 W · 41 L-9.8wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-69.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x73ed…2574backed No71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L-7.2wins-0.38per pick59cpaid-71%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes39c130$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.925241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40a0…cb70backed No20c123$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f2…b98dbacked No11c122.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No12c108$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe534…7068backed No22c64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edb…6089backed No62c62.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes55c58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8611529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94c8…90f5backed Yes44c45.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62875%6 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.54per pick21cpaid+321.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9237…7659backed No49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes31c40.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.758015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.124035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes37c33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.794247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No72c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.041540%6 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x98da…f00fbacked No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick61cpaid-56.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No46c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.346832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes78c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.842941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cbe…2eb1backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x989f…0af2backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes59c17.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.086616.7%11 W · 55 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.