Us Politics · resolved market

Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196867fbcdab68c81b2e2d8dd64b0c88b852249c5c33284979f96024def6427c

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,991 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xef9f…8924backed Yes	34c	1,089$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.69	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+10.8wins	+0.41per pick	24cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No	69c	387$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.03	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-8.0wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-61%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x73ed…2574backed No	34c	294.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-7.2wins	-0.38per pick	59cpaid	-71%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes	75c	273.69$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.42	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	64c	252$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.76	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked No	62c	180.5$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.8	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-10.3wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	23-0.25 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	54c	175.08$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.31	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x62d2…9355backed No	16c	157.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	36c	150$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.5	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed No	55c	150$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-6.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	29c	142$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	35c	140$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.2	80	15%12 W · 68 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No	20c	115.95$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.77	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	69c	80$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	61c	80$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.7	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No	22c	78.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes	34c	58.88$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.03	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed No	66c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No	68c	43.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.64	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	64c	42$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	126	31.7%40 W · 86 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed Yes	43c	40$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe27e…13a5backed Yes	38c	32.6$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98da…f00fbacked No	63c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	61cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No	37c	29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	62c	22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event