Us Politics · resolved market

Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7bc5ceb0b7e466706c2f31baf1840ef4d78f89b559728299b9913c4b9912354

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,813

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,946 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x45b2…cbc1backed No	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	12cpaid	+78%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No	10c	1,712$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.82	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No	64c	188.82$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.02	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-10.0wins	-0.40per pick	64cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	28-0.20 edge/pick
0x73ed…2574backed No	63c	156.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.54	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-7.2wins	-0.38per pick	59cpaid	-71%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	36c	150$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e8a…668ebacked No	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e58…4668backed No	14c	149.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked No	66c	148.03$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.14	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	10c	144.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-8.1wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	60c	86.39$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.49	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	68cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	55c	85.78$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.87	252	41.7%105 W · 147 L	-17.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	42c	70$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.6	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	34c	36.44$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.05	336	27.4%92 W · 244 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98da…f00fbacked Yes	38c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	61cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa7f4…0fc9backed No	68c	23.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	72c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event