Us Politics · resolved market

Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b84e4fc65195937cd142d43261426d950200b0e97ee2f3c423f9fa7cc6a6b5

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,507 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x89c2…f627backed Yes	80c	10,700$8,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,140	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	4,018$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.59	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	2c	977$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.81	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed No	20c	776.97$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.67	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-6.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No	21c	700.1$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.62	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	18c	553.32$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.8	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	19c	200$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.65	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No	16c	81.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	80	15%12 W · 68 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98da…f00fbacked Yes	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	61cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes	78c	51.67$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.2	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes	80c	39.6$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+87%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	126	31.7%40 W · 86 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	80c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event