Us Politics · resolved market

Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe256ee3235e56c54096964b56e22878754e6b9e3f3b834ff58220824ad504a1b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,906 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1719…5ceabacked No	10c	278.38$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x73ed…2574backed No	63c	158.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-7.2wins	-0.38per pick	59cpaid	-71%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes	52c	148.32$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.9	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No	53c	104.69$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	68c	58.62$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.5	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	54c	58.03$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.87	80	15%12 W · 68 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	49c	49.78$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.49	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	45c	44.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	43c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+91%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes	73c	39.11$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.4	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e0f…a2f9backed Yes	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+9.7wins	+0.34per pick	37cpaid	+117.1%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0x98da…f00fbacked No	79c	30$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	61cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes	72c	16.43$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+87%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event