TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,618
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,618 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45b2…cbc1backed No8c2,000$160 inLost-$1603218.8%6 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No17c855.24$147 inLost-$147.044634.8%16 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df2…d4a9backed No10c800$78 inLost-$78306.7%2 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc934…5551backed No10c800$78 inLost-$78258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes60c306.6$183 inWon+$123.443969.2%27 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e58…4668backed No8c300$24 inLost-$24147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid+78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…668ebacked No8c300$24 inLost-$2490%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a22…5692backed No4c273.33$12 inLost-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No20c135$27 inLost-$276832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No40c92.8$37 inLost-$37.124727.7%13 W · 34 L-13.0wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes45c91.36$41 inWon+$50.3733618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c86$33 inLost-$33.051,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No40c81.98$33 inLost-$33.0825241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes61c52.08$32 inWon+$20.569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No25c52$13 inLost-$136616.7%11 W · 55 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No25c48$12 inLost-$124816.7%8 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No40c46.4$19 inLost-$18.563327.3%9 W · 24 L-8.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-61%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No40c46.4$19 inLost-$18.563036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-40%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes24c45$11 inWon+$34.252871.4%20 W · 8 L+9.7wins+0.34per pick37cpaid+117.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked No38c42.18$16 inLost-$15.933253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes56c40$23 inWon+$17.44447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+91%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c32.5$14 inWon+$18.855834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No77c20$15 inLost-$15.45853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Yes58c20$12 inWon+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83f…4611backed Yes64c17.19$11 inWon+$6.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+142.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.