Us Politics · resolved market

Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f013d260f4393a1a0417af48609e3b5dc66c5aa4eae221afe94df6ce4f3d321

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 31, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,011 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	1c	3,805$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	8c	700$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.8	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No	77c	200$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.7	192	36.5%70 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	72c	171.64$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.46	184	25%46 W · 138 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes	26c	152.98$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.98	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.17per pick	32cpaid	-57%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No	73c	144.19$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.73	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-10.0wins	-0.40per pick	64cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	28-0.20 edge/pick
0x73ed…2574backed No	79c	126.02$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-7.2wins	-0.38per pick	59cpaid	-71%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	39c	119.18$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.2	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8b…90e2backed No	20c	113.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes	34c	102.66$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	68	58.8%40 W · 28 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9df2…d4a9backed No	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	15cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	23c	100$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.4	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	27c	99.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.99	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes	27c	94.29$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.29	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	17c	73.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	20c	72.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes	80c	66.41$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.28	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	74c	66$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.84	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	64c	61.93$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.56	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	68cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	77c	60$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No	76c	60$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	27c	59.58$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.49	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No	77c	40$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	0%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed No	78c	40$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes	27c	40$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+9.7wins	+0.34per pick	37cpaid	+117.1%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	64c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-8.1wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No	62c	20.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-7.5wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67f8…265dbacked No	73c	20.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.48per pick	73cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No	69c	17.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	365	27.1%99 W · 266 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event