TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84c…cf18backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes62c2,481$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.619236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e9…64e6backed No37c1,340$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No21c1,192$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.514634.8%16 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed No32c904$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.73250%0 W · 25 L-6.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c741.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.051227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd67e…ccf6backed No2c547.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes78c533.39$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9118425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes71c448.3$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.69837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No13c355.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.686833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd771…489fbacked Yes74c300.23$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb51…d3bcbacked No35c230.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked No40c218.28$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6170%0 W · 17 L-10.3wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight23-0.25 edge/pick
0x6a03…e6b0backed Yes64c212.28$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40140%0 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d31…75d9backed Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No15c156.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…675dbacked No30c149.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No22c139.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.624727.7%13 W · 34 L-13.0wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No13c137.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.844816.7%8 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0a7…f3c0backed No39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…1f8abacked No12c125.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No24c123.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.662642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No10c111.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.186616.7%11 W · 55 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No24c108.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.283036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-40%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4116…555abacked No28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes63c105.53$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.613253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98da…f00fbacked No27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick61cpaid-56.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No35c87.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2111529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4044…8de5backed Yes80c85.69$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.311861.1%11 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick35cpaid+62.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes50c80.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.184182.9%34 W · 7 L+10.5wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x20a3…24d2backed No29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No26c77.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.121540%6 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes58c77.14$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1433627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked No46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf042…8d10backed Yes68c66.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No31c65.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14d6…0851backed No23c61.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No24c49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.952450%12 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No32c47.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.082910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No22c46.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213327.3%9 W · 24 L-8.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-61%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No38c44.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8510135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.0wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-74.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.466354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c35.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes58c28.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.936527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2d…2aa6backed Yes70c25.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes65c17.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.193056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.