Movies · resolved market
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6083fe03ca1d8a2b16f352c8f3460762ea8c58220975bcdb144a5c33e8f77cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,586 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed No | 1c | 74,240$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 2c | 4,980$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 13c | 3,135$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 11c | 2,324$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 12c | 1,981$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.98 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 72c | 1,664$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 9c | 1,606$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 73c | 1,502$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.54 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…8711backed No | 1c | 1,449$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 12c | 1,328$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 72c | 1,121$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.56 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 77c | 1,111$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,094$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 19c | 1,042$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.55 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…f668backed Yes | 71c | 1,016$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 25c | 1,013$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 30c | 1,012$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 29c | 986$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 10c | 974.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 74c | 974$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 31c | 963$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 24c | 953$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.49 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 31c | 939$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 72c | 916$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 71c | 901$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 80c | 899.36$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.87 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 73c | 867$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 9c | 861.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 73c | 845$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.39 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked No | 27c | 839.18$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 69c | 825$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 72c | 823$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed No | 31c | 810$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 26c | 798$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 28c | 795$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.6 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 21c | 791$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 13c | 772.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 29c | 734$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 15c | 731$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked No | 31c | 728$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 33c | 719$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed No | 30c | 706$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 76c | 695$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 27c | 684$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 28c | 677$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 77c | 674$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed No | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 26c | 652$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 644.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 24c | 644$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 69c | 642$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 78c | 638$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed No | 29c | 635$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed No | 31c | 633$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 27c | 616$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 28c | 603$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 28c | 580$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 28c | 573$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 31c | 567$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 70c | 567$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 18c | 565$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 12c | 561$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 63c | 555$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 28c | 549$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 72c | 547$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.16 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed No | 30c | 547$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 73c | 530$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 34c | 528$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…87f3backed No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 19c | 518$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 74c | 508$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 22c | 506$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 74c | 503$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…2d2cbacked No | 34c | 503$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 69c | 499$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 16c | 498.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 31c | 498$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 79c | 494$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 73c | 490$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes | 69c | 484$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 11c | 480.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 72c | 479$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 30c | 478$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 69c | 478$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 28c | 474$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 69c | 468$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 27c | 464$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 67c | 451$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 60c | 446$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 72c | 444$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked No | 28c | 433$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 19c | 419$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 44c | 408$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 73c | 405$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 69c | 403$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 69c | 402$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 69c | 398$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.