TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$404,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,586 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd97…0ec5backed No1c74,240$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-58.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No2c4,980$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.695612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No13c3,135$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.6529926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No11c2,324$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.133324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No12c1,981$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.982412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes72c1,664$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.22646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No9c1,606$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.545529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes73c1,502$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.542161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc876…8711backed No1c1,449$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No12c1,328$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.997931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes72c1,121$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.563452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54b…aa14backed Yes77c1,111$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.741526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes72c1,094$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.171435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No19c1,042$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes71c1,016$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No25c1,013$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.42733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No30c1,012$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.121060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed No29c986$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.941618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-64.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked No10c974.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.45414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes74c974$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.151030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No31c963$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.531850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No24c953$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.495750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No31c939$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.093234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes72c916$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.48633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes71c901$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.291947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa178…2112backed Yes80c899.36$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.871275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked Yes73c867$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.091656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No9c861.31$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.821136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes73c845$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.392733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked No27c839.18$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.731533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes69c825$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.75785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+53.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes72c823$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.442040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No31c810$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.12123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No26c798$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.522152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No28c795$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.62623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No21c791$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.111741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No13c772.86$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0915641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed No29c734$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.861216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed No15c731$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.651250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked No31c728$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.321040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No33c719$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.452540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864a…9ed1backed No30c706$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes76c695$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+88.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No27c684$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.332951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed No28c677$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.561258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes77c674$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.021163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6eb1…b027backed No9c666.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No26c652$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.522227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No9c644.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.32042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No24c644$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.563036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes69c642$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.021855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3474…be04backed Yes78c638$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+93%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed No29c635$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed No31c633$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.23757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked No27c616$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.222653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No28c603$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.844542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked No28c580$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+98.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked No28c573$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.44825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed No31c567$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.771625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed Yes70c567$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f33…81f6backed No18c565$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.71540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed No12c561$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes63c555$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.351540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No28c549$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.722642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes72c547$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.163161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed No30c547$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes73c530$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.11770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No34c528$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.423748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaece…87f3backed No19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No19c518$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.421030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes74c508$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.082352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No22c506$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.322832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes74c503$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.783641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11f…2d2cbacked No34c503$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252c…391abacked Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed Yes69c499$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.692748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No16c498.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.081921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No31c498$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.382544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Yes79c494$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.741675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes73c490$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.32254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes69c484$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.041118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed No11c480.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.89156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes72c479$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.122466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No30c478$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.42227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes69c478$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.182268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+49.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked No28c474$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.721850%9 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed Yes69c468$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.08850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No27c464$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.283740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked No11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed Yes67c451$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick60cpaid-65.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes60c446$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9213040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes72c444$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.323240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked No28c433$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.241346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed No19c419$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No44c408$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.522236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed Yes73c405$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.353351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes69c403$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.933751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed Yes69c402$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes69c398$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.383151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.