Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5740cf6380c8c21e2ba02dc9f1e11482134ed7a818cb6d8fcbd772bfdc445212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,689 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,266$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 6c | 1,772$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,257$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…180abacked Yes | 8c | 705.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 7c | 491.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 430.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 13c | 399.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 6c | 393.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 382.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 8c | 381.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 7c | 379$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…a425backed Yes | 8c | 369.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…c130backed Yes | 5c | 350.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…8bd5backed Yes | 7c | 348.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Yes | 7c | 307.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 7c | 240.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 211$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…19efbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 170.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…5473backed Yes | 8c | 159.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Yes | 7c | 155$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 7c | 146.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…da39backed Yes | 15c | 134.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 8c | 128.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…2d40backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Hamnet win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.