Movies · resolved market
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ce42eeff7e99c45f91d6f797656f3cb6855215af4190ce45dd8b5de662c958e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 13c | 1,451$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 13c | 990$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 18c | 944$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked Yes | 13c | 883$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 13c | 846$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed Yes | 16c | 786$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 18c | 644$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 17c | 591.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 13c | 558$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 13c | 545$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 13c | 539$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 489.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 21c | 469$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 18c | 406$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked Yes | 21c | 363$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 18c | 349$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked No | 79c | 337$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed Yes | 13c | 335$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 13c | 333$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 79c | 318$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 16c | 306$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 302.4$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 14c | 298$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 21c | 287$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 19c | 284$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…6279backed Yes | 13c | 279$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 19c | 254$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…2105backed No | 72c | 248$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 238$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 28c | 237.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 21c | 221$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 14c | 211$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed Yes | 13c | 205$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 18c | 204.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 17c | 187.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 17c | 186$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 176.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 79c | 161$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 8c | 157.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 16c | 152$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed No | 79c | 147$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 18c | 143$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 14c | 138.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 23c | 137$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 21c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 18c | 128$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed Yes | 21c | 124$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 19c | 116$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 111.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 108.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 79c | 106$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 79c | 87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 81.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 21c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 18c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…af79backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 78c | 40.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 73c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Hamnet win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.