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World Politics · resolved market

Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8db1…8269backed Yes43c6,261$2,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,683.972536%9 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4462…8d6cbacked Yes3c4,065$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.65616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+681.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes41c3,086$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.198330.1%25 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes11c2,726$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.862548%12 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.26per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No52c1,798$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.191656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53de…b486backed Yes52c1,750$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4c…d411backed No63c1,710$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.982441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No53c1,455$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.871662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed No46c1,454$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.041361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+79.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked Yes52c1,413$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked No47c1,302$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked No47c1,298$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes53c1,282$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.281827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x546a…1abbbacked Yes39c1,270$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked Yes40c1,243$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+89.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9982…23c1backed Yes38c1,209$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.36616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+1,655.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes42c1,196$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed No58c1,167$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa462…263bbacked Yes46c1,125$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.13616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+390%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked No60c1,088$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.2540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No49c1,051$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed Yes49c1,047$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.788341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed No61c1,038$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d1…6f1abacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes29c978.71$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.179613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes50c978$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes53c969$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.57650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes53c924$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.72450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No46c906$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.06850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+84.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No60c905$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No51c900$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No51c883$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.671353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+288.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes53c882$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed Yes50c862$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes53c836$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed Yes39c834$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+127.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No50c798$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.31per pick55cpaid+154%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed No47c790$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.7580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No47c790$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed Yes53c783$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+224.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked No47c778$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.34742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes54c772.38$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.914045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed No61c764$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+50.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes53c734$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.0240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed Yes54c733$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8550%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes40c731$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed Yes53c727$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes53c722$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.271225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed No59c709$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+73.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed Yes55c701$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes42c691$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes53c690$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+55%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes53c683$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes53c680$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.4650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No47c675$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.751040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes41c673$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.93850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed No47c669$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick41cpaid+207.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed No58c658$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes40c647$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes44c646$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed Yes53c642$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.26742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No49c638$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.38850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes40c636$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick37cpaid-83.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes39c631$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.09837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes40c621$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-79.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No52c620$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No50c619$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes43c606$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.21020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes52c605$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.811338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes53c605$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.65560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes40c599$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38c1…2f84backed No61c584$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes53c579$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.871330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No50c573$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No56c572.93$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.376142.6%26 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked No58c571$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed Yes53c568$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+87.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x128e…001dbacked Yes42c568$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes55c560$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No47c560$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+125%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed No47c559$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.27887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes53c545$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.85850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed Yes51c537$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked No61c537$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.431136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+41.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes53c535$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked No47c525$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfda4…1058backed No60c515$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed Yes53c510$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.31136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+104.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes53c507$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.711154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+75.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No58c504$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.681163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+85.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No47c496$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.881450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes39c490$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No47c488$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.641145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes47c487$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.951020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No47c487$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.091040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55b…857bbacked No49c486$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.86580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+49.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No58c480$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No47c480$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed No47c477$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.811353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick27cpaid+142%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No50c476$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.