World Politics · resolved market
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fde9fa41aff8a14cf6d4f90345cbbf560d06a09f7c418fc63524722149dfdae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 12,186$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.44 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…6c77backed Yes | 0c | 6,251$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 1c | 6,142$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +1,655.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes | 2c | 5,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 4,800$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.06 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,547$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,042$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 4c | 1,819$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,603$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c5…4d00backed Yes | 1c | 1,454$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…756ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,442$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d35…9e73backed Yes | 22c | 1,414$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed Yes | 7c | 1,362$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,275$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 77c | 1,098$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…1be0backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 775.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 753.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa11…701cbacked Yes | 5c | 752.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1072…5f01backed Yes | 4c | 617.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 541.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked Yes | 4c | 480.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 448.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 423.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 420.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 415.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 397.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 389.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…cc76backed Yes | 3c | 385.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 4c | 383.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…4ff6backed Yes | 3c | 327.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7d…7191backed Yes | 7c | 301.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…273cbacked Yes | 5c | 300.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…4bacbacked Yes | 4c | 258.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 244.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6645…4b0ebacked Yes | 8c | 191.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 139.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 37c | 54.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…9592backed Yes | 35c | 34.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?this page
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 0–5 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.