World Politics · resolved market
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f69f28aa7ae01c1ff75c2f83c66651a3b3b057a5d97e3c6fc1fcf78c6b4272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8923…1571backed No | 0c | 19,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…6c77backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 75c | 6,406$4,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…8d6cbacked No | 3c | 4,200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +681.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 13c | 3,203$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,790.68 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 2c | 2,252$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.96 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,888$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +1,655.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.61 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,422$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.05 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.26 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…263bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,267$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +390%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…30c2backed Yes | 7c | 1,245$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,081$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.64 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 1,064$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x32d5…59cebacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked No | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…d260backed Yes | 22c | 599.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 11c | 500$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 486.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.69 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 4c | 433.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.71 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 3c | 399.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.88 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 394.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.12 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 269.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.68 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…ddf2backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?this page
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 0–5 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.